World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages — Live Odds & Analysis
Live Polymarket odds for "World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages": Morocco Yes 100%. 12 markets, $10.23M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.
This page is a free summary. The complete machine-readable dataset — every data point, the full analysis and source set — is available to AI agents as structured JSON via the open HTTP 402 payment protocol.
crawlerAutoPrice=true · verify at https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify
What this market is asking and how it is priced
The Polymarket event “World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages” asks whether each listed nation will reach the knockout phase of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. It resolves “Yes” if the team advances and “No” if it is mathematically eliminated or if the tournament is cancelled or postponed beyond July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market runs until June 28, 2026, and currently features 12 active national teams.
Traders are pricing Morocco, Switzerland, and Japan at 100% “Yes”, implying the crowd assigns near‑certain chances of knockout qualification. South Korea is at 95%, Australia at 93%, and Sweden at 92% “Yes”. By contrast, Curacao and New Zealand are priced at 94% and 93% “No”, respectively, reflecting very low implied probabilities of advancement.
What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them
The $10.23 million total volume indicates substantial trading interest and relatively efficient pricing for these teams, especially the higher‑probability “Yes” outcomes. The 100% “Yes” prices for Morocco, Switzerland, and Japan suggest the market views their paths to the knockout stage as effectively secure, while the high “No” probabilities for Curacao and New Zealand signal broad consensus that they are unlikely to progress.
These implied probabilities would shift if on‑field results or group‑stage permutations change a team’s realistic qualification chances. For example, a loss or draw that mathematically eliminates a team would push its “Yes” price toward 0%; conversely, a strong result that opens a clear path to advancement would lift its “Yes” probability and likely attract fresh volume.
Current market odds
| Market | Leading outcome | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Morocco | Yes 100% | $174,982.4 |
| Switzerland | Yes 100% | $2.29M |
| Japan | Yes 100% | $411,634.14 |
| South Korea | Yes 95% | $53,153.78 |
| Curacao | No 94% | $174,414.56 |
| Australia | Yes 93% | $148,604.53 |
| New Zealand | No 93% | $138,087.79 |
| Sweden | Yes 92% | $207,029.27 |
| Czechia | No 76% | $76,516.63 |
| Ecuador | No 74% | $103,064.52 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | Yes 69% | $104,955.6 |
| Iran | Yes 63% | $83,730.83 |
Live data via the AISA Polymarket API. Updated 2026-06-23. View on Polymarket ↗