Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — Live Odds & Analysis
Live Polymarket odds for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028": Raphael Warnock No 99%. 12 markets, $1.21B volume. Real-money prediction-market data.
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What the market is asking and how traders are pricing it
The Polymarket event “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028” is a bundle of 12 binary markets, each asking whether a specific named individual will win and accept the Democratic nomination for president in 2028. The market resolves “Yes” only if that person becomes the nominee; otherwise it resolves “No.” Traders currently price Raphael Warnock, George Clooney, Oprah Winfrey, Gina Raimondo, Barack Obama, Gretchen Whitmer, Cory Booker, and Stephen A. Smith each at about 99% “No,” implying near‑certain exclusion from the nomination. The market’s total volume is $1.21 billion, and it will close on November 7, 2028, using official Democratic Party sources as the resolution benchmark.
What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them
The high “No” probabilities for these eight names reflect strong market‑implied confidence that they will not be the 2028 Democratic nominee, not that they are unpopular or unqualified. The large volume suggests substantial real‑money interest in early‑stage nomination expectations, but the odds remain highly sensitive to new information. Entry of a serious campaign, major endorsements, fundraising surges, or high‑profile withdrawals from other contenders could shift implied probabilities materially, especially as the 2028 cycle approaches.
Current market odds
| Market | Leading outcome | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Raphael Warnock | No 99% | $31.14M |
| George Clooney | No 99% | $41.70M |
| Oprah Winfrey | No 99% | $53.60M |
| Gina Raimondo | No 99% | $35.06M |
| Barack Obama | No 99% | $33.21M |
| Gretchen Whitmer | No 99% | $10.49M |
| Cory Booker | No 99% | $24.75M |
| Stephen A. Smith | No 99% | $20.92M |
| James Talarico | No 98% | $9.81M |
| Andy Beshear | No 98% | $12.59M |
| Pete Buttigieg | No 96% | $11.13M |
| Jon Ossoff | No 91% | $11.86M |
Live data via the AISA Polymarket API. Updated 2026-06-23. View on Polymarket ↗
Sources & citations
- https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028
- https://www.facebook.com/beingliberal.org/posts/great-news-polymarkets-latest-figure-shows-the-2028-democratic-nominee-winning-t/1426045046224329/
- https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner/kxpresnomd-28
- https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028
- Polymarket via AISA API