Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — Live Odds & Analysis
Live Polymarket odds for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?": Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97%. 1 markets, $32.40M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.
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What the market is asking and how traders are pricing it
The Polymarket event “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?” asks whether IMF Portwatch will report a 7‑day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) at or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. The threshold of 60 captures a broad mix of container, dry bulk, roll‑on/roll‑off, general cargo, and tanker vessels. With total volume of $32.40 million and one active market, traders currently price “No” at 97%, implying a 3% market‑implied probability that traffic will meet the normalization benchmark before the June 30 resolution date.
What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them
The 97% “No” price reflects a strong consensus that security, de‑mining, and insurance constraints will keep the 7‑day average below 60 through June 30, despite any short‑term spikes in daily transits. The high volume signals intense, informed trading around verifiable shipping data and geopolitical developments. Odds would shift meaningfully if IMF Portwatch data showed a sustained rise toward or above 60 in the moving average, or if credible security or diplomatic breakthroughs materially reduced perceived risk and encouraged a rapid return of vessel flows.
Current market odds
| Market | Leading outcome | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No 97% | $32.40M |
Live data via the AISA Polymarket API. Updated 2026-06-23. View on Polymarket ↗
Sources & citations
- https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june
- https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31
- https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31
- https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may
- Polymarket via AISA API