Presidential Election Winner 2028 — Live Odds & Analysis
Live Polymarket odds for "Presidential Election Winner 2028": Jalen Brunson No 99%. 12 markets, $637.27M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.
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What the market is asking and how traders are pricing it
The Polymarket event “Presidential Election Winner 2028” asks which individual will win the 2028 US presidential election, scheduled for November 7, 2028. If none of the listed candidates wins, the market resolves to “No.” Resolution is based on the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all calling the race for the same candidate. Current odds imply very low market‑implied probabilities that Jalen Brunson, Eric Trump, Tim Walz, Gretchen Whitmer, Elon Musk, Pete Buttigieg, Josh Shapiro, or Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez will win, with “No” priced around 95–99% for each of these contracts.
What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them
The $637.27 million total volume across 12 active markets suggests substantial trader interest in 2028 outcomes, even this early. The near‑uniform “No” pricing indicates that traders currently assign minimal probability to any of these specific individuals winning, implying expectations that the eventual winner will be someone else or that these candidates will not even be major contenders. Odds would likely shift if one of these figures becomes a serious nominee, gains strong polling, or experiences a major news event that changes perceived electability; such catalysts would likely draw fresh liquidity and compress the “No” probabilities for that candidate.
Current market odds
| Market | Leading outcome | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | No 99% | $1.04M |
| Eric Trump | No 99% | $17.56M |
| Tim Walz | No 99% | $42.60M |
| Gretchen Whitmer | No 99% | $12.90M |
| Elon Musk | No 99% | $25.13M |
| Pete Buttigieg | No 98% | $4.70M |
| Josh Shapiro | No 97% | $6.78M |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | No 95% | $12.12M |
| Jon Ossoff | No 94% | $4.77M |
| Marco Rubio | No 85% | $10.70M |
| Gavin Newsom | No 85% | $17.14M |
| JD Vance | No 80% | $14.26M |
Live data via the AISA Polymarket API. Updated 2026-06-23. View on Polymarket ↗
Sources & citations
- https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-2028-us-presidential-election
- https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresperson/pres-person/kxpresperson-28
- https://www.facebook.com/DuPageGOP/posts/the-most-recent-polymarket-odds-on-who-will-be-elected-president-in-2028-vance-i/1271367605036609/
- https://www.alphascope.app/odds/topic/presidential-election
- Polymarket via AISA API