World Cup: Golden Boot Winner — Live Odds & Analysis
Live Polymarket odds for "World Cup: Golden Boot Winner": Raphinha No 100%. 12 markets, $28.06M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.
This page is a free summary. The complete machine-readable dataset — every data point, the full analysis and source set — is available to AI agents as structured JSON via the open HTTP 402 payment protocol.
crawlerAutoPrice=true · verify at https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify
What the market is asking and how traders are pricing it
The Polymarket event “World Cup: Golden Boot Winner” asks which player will score the most goals across all 2026 FIFA World Cup main‑tournament rounds, with ties resolved first by fewer penalty‑kick goals and then by FIFA’s official designation. The market has 12 active outcomes and closes on 2026‑07‑20. Current odds show several players priced at or near 100% “No,” including Raphinha, Noah Okafor, Scott McTominay, Rodrygo, Amad Diallo, Memphis Depay, Jude Bellingham, and Deniz Undav, indicating traders assign them effectively zero chance of winning the Golden Boot.
What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them
The $28.06M total volume reflects substantial, concentrated trading on a small subset of contenders, with the bulk of probability mass sitting on a few favorites not listed in the query. The near‑100% “No” prices for the named players imply traders view them as fringe or non‑contenders given current form, team roles, and tournament expectations. These odds would shift if any of them received a much larger attacking role, started more games, or began scoring consistently in the group stage, especially if top‑tier favorites underperformed or were eliminated early.
Current market odds
| Market | Leading outcome | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Raphinha | No 100% | $313,616.09 |
| Noah Okafor | No 100% | $290,988.34 |
| Scott McTominay | No 100% | $265,782.07 |
| Rodrygo | No 100% | $211,519.39 |
| Amad Diallo | No 100% | $640,348.79 |
| Depay Memphis | No 100% | $365,562.9 |
| Jude Bellingham | No 100% | $326,966.04 |
| Deniz Undav | No 99% | $521,738.74 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | No 98% | $591,923.99 |
| Erling Haaland | No 91% | $685,946.18 |
| Kylian Mbappe | No 69% | $960,022.61 |
| Lionel Messi | No 66% | $817,298.35 |
Live data via the AISA Polymarket API. Updated 2026-06-23. View on Polymarket ↗