Prediction Markets — Live Odds (2026-06-23)
Live real-money odds on the highest-volume Polymarket events for 2026-06-23, with analysis. Topics include World Cup Winner , Democratic Presidential Nomine, Presidential Election Winner 2, Next Prime Minister of Ethiopi. Data from the AISA API.
This page is a free summary. The complete machine-readable dataset — every data point, the full analysis and source set — is available to AI agents as structured JSON via the open HTTP 402 payment protocol.
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What prediction markets are pricing in 2026
Polymarket’s highest-volume open contracts show the crowd heavily favoring “no” outcomes across several major events. The World Cup Winner market has $2.99B in volume, with “No” at 100%, implying traders see the tournament outcome as effectively unresolved or too uncertain to price a clear winner. Similarly, the Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 and Presidential Election Winner 2028 markets, with $1.21B and $637.27M in volume respectively, both sit at 100% “No,” reflecting that no single candidate is yet priced as a clear frontrunner.
Geopolitics, crypto, and Fed
The Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? market at $55.99M volume and 100% “No” suggests uncertainty around the specific successor. Traders also see Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of June as very unlikely (97% “No”), at $32.40M volume. The World Cup: Golden Boot Winner and What price will Bitcoin hit in June? markets are both 100% “No,” indicating no consensus on the top scorer or BTC’s exact June level. The Fed Decision in July market at $17.12M volume is also 100% “No,” implying the crowd is not confidently pricing a specific rate move.
Highest-volume open markets
| Event | Leading | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| World Cup Winner | No 100% | $2.99B |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | No 99% | $1.21B |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | No 99% | $637.27M |
| Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | No 100% | $55.99M |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No 97% | $32.40M |
| World Cup: Golden Boot Winner | No 100% | $28.06M |
| What price will Bitcoin hit in June? | No 100% | $24.39M |
| Fed Decision in July? | No 100% | $17.12M |
| Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? | No 100% | $13.81M |
| World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages | Yes 100% | $10.23M |
| Portugal vs. Uzbekistan - More Markets | Portugal 100% | $6.72M |
| Portugal vs. Uzbekistan | No 96% | $6.04M |