AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Traders price 'No change' at 96.0% for the October 2026 Fed decision
Polymarket odds for the October 2026 FOMC meeting are heavily concentrated on no rate change. The market resolves on the change in the upper bound of the federal funds target range.
You're reading the full report — free for humans and search engines.
The same content ships as a structured JSON dataset (normalized facts, sources and
citation arrays, no HTML parsing) so AI agents can consume it directly — metered per fetch via the open
HTTP 402 payment protocol.
crawlerAutoPrice=true · verify at https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify
What the market asks and how it resolves
The market tracks the change in basis points to the upper bound of the target federal funds range versus its level before the October 2026 Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled for October 27-28, 2026. The FOMC statement is the resolution source, and the market may resolve as soon as that statement is issued. Changes not shown among the options are rounded up to the nearest 25 bps and resolve to the matching bracket. The event ends 2026-10-29, with five active markets covering no change, 25 bps and 50+ bps moves in either direction.
How traders price it and how that moved
The 'No change' market is priced at 96.0%, while '25 bps increase' sits at 3.7%, '50+ bps increase' at 0.4%, and both '25 bps decrease' and '50+ bps decrease' at 0.1%. Over the last 57 half-day points, the 'No change' line started at 32.5%, reached a low of 30.5%, and climbed to its high of 96.0%, a change of +63.5 percentage points. The event has total volume of $81.29M, with $7.63M traded in the last 24 hours.
How concentrated the odds are
Probability is heavily concentrated in a single bracket. 'No change' dominates the distribution at 96.0%, leaving the remaining brackets with small shares, led by '25 bps increase' at 3.7%. The tail outcomes of 50+ bps moves in either direction are priced at 0.4% or below. This pattern means the market currently implies little disagreement about a rate move at this meeting, though these figures are market-implied probabilities rather than forecasts.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| No change | 96.0% | $26.35M |
| 25 bps increase | 3.7% | $19.21M |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.4% | $12.45M |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.1% | $10.12M |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.1% | $13.16M |
What decides this market
- The resolution uses the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so only that level's change in basis points counts.
- The FOMC statement after the October 27-28, 2026 meeting is the official resolution source, and it may be issued before the market closes.
- Any change not shown among the options rounds up to the nearest 25 bps and resolves to the relevant bracket.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for…
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
What does the 'No change' price of 96.0% mean?
It is the market-implied probability that the upper bound of the federal funds target range stays at its prior level after the October 2026 meeting. It reflects trader pricing on Polymarket, not a forecast or advice.
When will this market resolve?
The market may resolve as soon as the FOMC statement for the October 27-28, 2026 meeting is issued. The event is listed as ending on 2026-10-29, and the Federal Reserve website is also cited as a data source.
What happens if the rate change is not one of the listed options?
Under the resolution text, a change to a level not shown is rounded up to the nearest 25 bps and resolves to the relevant bracket. For example, a move of 12.5 bps is treated as 25 bps.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.