AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Traders price the 77,500 downside strike highest, at 25.5% Yes for October
Live Polymarket odds on whether Bitcoin reaches a set price during October. The 77,500 downside strike leads at 25.5%, within a event carrying $12.67M total volume across 12 markets.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
The event asks which price Bitcoin will hit in October, split into 12 separate markets, each one a different price threshold. Downward strikes such as 77,500 and 75,000 sit alongside upward strikes running from 87,500 up to 150,000. Each market resolves on whether its threshold is reached during the month, and the event ends 2026-11-01. Prices shown are market-implied probabilities of Yes, not forecasts of where Bitcoin will trade.
How traders price it now and how that moved
The 77,500 downside market is the leading line, priced at 25.5% Yes. It opened the tracked window at 40.5%, peaked at a high of 52.5% and bottomed at a low of 19.5%, and is down 15.0 percentage points overall. Recent activity was modest, with $889,909 traded in the last 24 hours against $12.67M total volume. The current level sits well above its low but below its high.
How concentrated the odds are
The 77,500 strike carries the largest share of probability, followed by 75,000 at 7.5% and upside 87,500 at 5.2%. Most other strikes sit at or below 2.9%, with 102,500, 105,000 and 97,500 each at 0.3%. The 150,000 strike is priced at 0.1%. Probability is concentrated on downside thresholds near the current range, while the higher strikes are priced as long shots.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| ↓ 77,500 | 25.5% | $881,367 |
| ↓ 75,000 | 7.5% | $592,472 |
| ↑ 87,500 | 5.2% | $1.11M |
| ↓ 72,500 | 2.9% | $461,932 |
| ↑ 90,000 | 2.8% | $796,487 |
| ↑ 92,500 | 1.7% | $622,242 |
| ↑ 95,000 | 0.8% | $432,266 |
| ↑ 100,000 | 0.4% | $506,256 |
| ↑ 105,000 | 0.3% | $740,491 |
| ↑ 102,500 | 0.3% | $441,570 |
| ↑ 97,500 | 0.3% | $396,492 |
| ↑ 150,000 | 0.1% | $649,198 |
What decides this market
- Whether Bitcoin reaches the stated price at any point during October decides each market, not where it closes.
- The event ends 2026-11-01, so price moves through the final days of October still count toward resolution.
- Each threshold is a separate Yes market, so odds on one strike do not settle the others.
Resolution rules
What price will Bitcoin hit in October?
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
What does a Yes outcome mean here?
A Yes outcome means Bitcoin reaches that market's stated price during October. The 25.5% figure is the market-implied probability of Yes for the 77,500 strike, not a forecast.
Why are the upside strikes priced so low?
Strikes like 100,000 at 0.4% and 150,000 at 0.1% need large moves to resolve Yes, so traders assign them small probabilities. These are market-implied figures only.
Does this mean Bitcoin will fall to 77,500?
No. The odds show where traders currently price the chance of Bitcoin touching 77,500 in October, not a prediction or trading advice.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.