AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Vance leads 2028 GOP nomination pricing at 38.8%, with Rubio second at 18.1%
Traders price J.D. Vance as the most likely Republican nominee for 2028 at 38.8%, followed by Marco Rubio at 18.1%. The field is otherwise priced in low single digits or below.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
The event asks who will win and accept the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. Each named individual has a separate Yes or No market. A market resolves Yes if that person wins and accepts the nomination, and No otherwise. The resolution source is a consensus of official Republican Party sources. If the nominee is replaced before election day, the resolution of the market does not change. The event has 12 active markets, total volume of $718.27M, and 24h volume of $988,800, and it ends on 2028-11-08.
How traders price it now and how it moved
J.D. Vance is priced at 38.8% implied probability of Yes, the highest in the event. Over the last 53 half-day points, his price started at 50.9%, reached a high of 50.9% and a low of 37.8%, and now stands at 38.8%. That is down 12.2 percentage points over the window. These are market-implied probabilities that reflect current trading and are not forecasts.
How concentrated the odds are
The odds are heavily concentrated at the top. Vance at 38.8% and Marco Rubio at 18.1% together hold most of the implied probability across the field. Ron DeSantis is at 3.5%, Donald Trump at 1.9%, and Donald Trump Jr. at 1.8%. The remaining names, including Glenn Youngkin, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Greg Abbott, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tulsi Gabbard, Nikki Haley, and Sarah Huckabee Sanders, are each priced at 0.4% or lower.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 38.8% | $16.32M |
| Marco Rubio | 18.1% | $11.05M |
| Ron DeSantis | 3.5% | $15.99M |
| Donald Trump | 1.9% | $9.69M |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.8% | $9.80M |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.4% | $8.90M |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 0.4% | $16.96M |
| Greg Abbott | 0.3% | $21.60M |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.3% | $16.28M |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.1% | $14.48M |
| Nikki Haley | 0.1% | $10.53M |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 0.1% | $36.21M |
What decides this market
- The market resolves Yes only if the named person wins and accepts the 2028 Republican nomination.
- Resolution relies on a consensus of official Republican Party sources, not on media reporting or polls.
- A replacement of the Republican nominee before election day does not change how the market resolves.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
What does a Yes price mean in this event?
A Yes price is the market-implied probability that the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. It reflects current trading and is not a forecast or advice.
What happens if the nominee is replaced before election day?
The resolution text states that replacing the Republican nominee before election day will not change how the market resolves. Each market resolves based on the named individual under the stated criteria.
When does the event end?
The event ends on 2028-11-08. It currently has 12 active markets, total volume of $718.27M, and 24h volume of $988,800.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.