AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Sat, Oct 24, 2026
Traders give 97.8% odds the ceasefire holds through October 22, falling to 27.0% by December 31
The event lists nine date markets asking whether the US-Iran ceasefire continues through each date. Implied odds decline steadily as the horizon extends.
You're reading the full report — free for humans and search engines.
The same content ships as a structured JSON dataset (normalized facts, sources and
citation arrays, no HTML parsing) so AI agents can consume it directly — metered per fetch via the open
HTTP 402 payment protocol.
crawlerAutoPrice=true · verify at https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify
What the market asks and how it resolves
The event asks whether the US-Iran ceasefire continues through each listed date. Each market resolves 'No' if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by that date at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, and 'Yes' otherwise. A qualifying action is an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike initiated by the United States that directly impacts Iran, including bombs, air-launched drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. Intercepted munitions, surface-to-air strikes, artillery, cyber operations, ground incursions and unexecuted threats do not count.
How traders price it now
Traders price the October 22 market at 97.8%, the October 24 market at 93.5%, and the October 31 market at 74.5%. Odds fall further for later dates: November 15 at 45.5%, November 30 at 36.0%, and December 31 at 27.0%. The October 22 series started at 88.5%, reached a high of 98.2% and a low of 86.0%, and shows a change of +9.7 percentage points across its last 13 half-day points. These are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts.
How concentrated the odds are
The nine markets form a descending ladder, with each later date priced at or below the one before it. Total volume stands at $23.88M, with $1.22M traded in the last 24 hours, so activity is spread across the date ladder rather than concentrated in one contract. Pricing is most confident for near-term dates and least confident for dates closer to the end of the year.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| October 22 | 97.8% | $3.26M |
| October 24 | 93.5% | $1.23M |
| October 28 | 83.5% | $553,639 |
| October 31 | 74.5% | $5.77M |
| November 8 | 60.5% | $123,747 |
| November 15 | 45.5% | $466,468 |
| November 22 | 40.0% | $66,781 |
| November 30 | 36.0% | $864,178 |
| December 31 | 27.0% | $712,280 |
What decides this market
- Any qualifying US air or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iran before the deadline resolves a market to 'No'.
- Intercepted or destroyed munitions, surface-to-air strikes and artillery fire do not count toward a 'No' resolution.
- Threats or announced force that has not been executed do not trigger resolution, so rhetoric alone leaves outcomes unchanged.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-…
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
What time sets each market's deadline?
Each market uses 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on its specified date. Only qualifying US strikes occurring by that cutoff can resolve a market to 'No'.
Does a threat from Washington resolve a market?
No. Threats, authorizations or announcements of force that have not been executed do not count as qualifying military action under the resolution text.
What do the odds represent?
They are market-implied probabilities of 'Yes' based on trader pricing at the time of the data. They are not forecasts or investment advice.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.