AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Harry Kane leads Ballon d'Or 2026 pricing at 71.5%, ahead of Mbappé at 16.4%
Traders price Harry Kane as the likeliest 2026 Ballon d'Or winner. The market resolves on France Football's official announcement, with a fallback to 'Other' if no winner is declared by year-end.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
The market asks who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or. Each of the 12 active markets pays out on a named player if that player is the winner. The resolution text ties the outcome to official information from France Football. If no 2026 winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'. The event has $67.38M in total volume, $3.74M over the last 24 hours, and an end date of 2027-01-01.
How traders price it now and how that moved
Harry Kane's implied probability is 71.5%, up from 57.7% at the start of the recorded window. Over the last 55 half-day points, his price peaked at 76.5% and bottomed at 36.2%, a net gain of 13.9 percentage points. Kylian Mbappé sits at 16.4% and Lamine Yamal at 11.3%. These are market-implied probabilities that move with trading flow, not forecasts.
How concentrated the odds are
Pricing is heavily concentrated at the top. Three names, Kane, Mbappé and Yamal, carry nearly all the probability in the market. The remaining nine names, including Khvicha Kvaratskhelia at 0.3%, each trade between 0.1% and 0.3%. Long-shot prices of this size are common in multi-candidate markets and carry little individual weight.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 71.5% | $7.80M |
| Kylian Mbappé | 16.4% | $7.16M |
| Lamine Yamal | 11.3% | $6.39M |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.3% | $4.46M |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 0.1% | $4.90M |
| Erling Haaland | 0.1% | $3.78M |
| Jude Bellingham | 0.1% | $1.70M |
| Vinícius Júnior | 0.1% | $1.10M |
| Michael Olise | 0.1% | $3.51M |
| Declan Rice | 0.1% | $966,291 |
| Vitinha | 0.1% | $981,802 |
| Achraf Hakimi | 0.1% | $770,386 |
What decides this market
- The resolution text names France Football's official information as the primary source, so its announcement decides the winner.
- If no 2026 winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other' instead of a player.
- The market closes on 2027-01-01, so the timing of the declared winner relative to that deadline matters.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
What does a 71.5% price on Harry Kane mean?
It is the market-implied probability that Harry Kane wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or, based on current trading. It reflects where buyers and sellers currently meet, not a forecast or advice.
Who decides how this market resolves?
The resolution text says the market follows the official 2026 Ballon d'Or winner as announced by France Football, its primary resolution source.
What happens if no winner is declared in time?
If no 2026 Ballon d'Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other' rather than any named player.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.