AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Sun, Oct 25, 2026
Traders price Flávio Bolsonaro well ahead at 82.7% versus Lula at 17.5%
Polymarket odds on Brazil's presidential election put Flávio Bolsonaro at 82.7% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 17.5%, with $195.92M in total volume.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
The market asks which candidate wins Brazil's presidential election, with one listed candidate per outcome. The resolution text says the election is scheduled for October 4, 2026, and the market includes any potential second round. Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) as the reference if ambiguity arises. If the result is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
How traders price it now and how it moved
Traders currently price Flávio Bolsonaro at 82.7% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 17.5%. Across 57 half-day points, Flávio Bolsonaro's history started at 55.1%, bottomed at 55.1%, and peaked at 88.9%. The latest history point reads 77.0%, which is up 21.9 percentage points over the window. Total volume stands at $195.92M, with $2.47M traded in the last 24 hours.
How concentrated the odds are
Only two markets are active, and the odds sit heavily on Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula's 17.5% price indicates a much smaller share of trader confidence. The spread is wide, so pricing is concentrated on one outcome. These are market-implied probabilities reflecting current trading, not forecasts or advice, and they can shift quickly as the October vote approaches.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 82.7% | $27.17M |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 17.5% | $30.31M |
What decides this market
- The listed candidate who wins the election decides the outcome, including any potential second round.
- If the result is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
- Official TSE results serve as the reference if credible reporting is ambiguous.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
Does a second round affect how this market resolves?
Yes. The market explicitly includes any potential second round, so the candidate who wins the final result is the one that counts for resolution.
What happens if the result is not known by June 30, 2027?
The market resolves to 'Other' if the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Are these percentages a forecast of the election?
No. The percentages are market-implied probabilities of Yes, reflecting current trading activity. They are not forecasts or advice.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.