AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Sun, Oct 25, 2026
Match Winner quoted at 100.0% while its tracked series holds at 18.5%
The Match Winner listing shows 100.0%, while its tracked series has been flat at 18.5% over the last half-day. Eleven markets across this event total $4.81M in volume.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
The market asks which side wins the Round 2 Worlds Group Stage LoL match between Dplus KIA and T1, initially scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. A Dplus KIA win resolves to Dplus KIA and a T1 win resolves to T1. A cancellation or tie resolves 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start on or before November 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, or the market resolves 50-50 regardless of whether the match is later played. Forfeits resolve to the team that wins automatically.
How traders price it now and how it moved
The Match Winner listing is quoted at 100.0%, but its recorded series over the last half-day started at 18.5%, is now 18.5%, with a high of 18.5% and a low of 18.5%. The change is +0.0 percentage points, so the tracked series shows no movement in that window. Total volume is $4.81M, with $4.81M traded in the last 24 hours across 11 active markets. Market-implied probabilities reflect current trading prices and are not forecasts.
How concentrated the odds are
Total Kills lines from 21.5 through 33.5 are priced between 99.5% and 100.0%, and both Baron and Dragon slay markets sit at 99.5%. By contrast, Any Player Quadra Kill and Any Player Penta Kill are both at 47.0%, and Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors is at 46.5%. The odds cluster near certainty for map-wide events and near even for player and objective props.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Match Winner | 100.0% | $4.75M |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 100.0% | $47,678 |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 100.0% | $13,058 |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 99.5% | $0 |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 99.5% | $0 |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 99.5% | $0 |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 99.5% | $0 |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1? | 99.5% | $0 |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 47.0% | $0 |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 47.0% | $20.00 |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 46.5% | $0 |
What decides this market
- Resolution turns on the match result as played, with a Dplus KIA win resolving to Dplus KIA and a T1 win resolving to T1.
- A cancellation, a tie, or no rescheduled start by November 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET resolves the market 50-50.
- Forfeits, disqualifications, or walkovers resolve to whichever team wins automatically.
Resolution rules
This market refers to the LoL Round 2 match between Dplus KIA and T1 in the Worlds Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Dplus KIA" if Dplus KIA win the match against T1. This market will resolve to "T1" if T1 win the match against Dplus KIA. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 24, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the dead…
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
Why does the Match Winner show 100.0% while its history shows 18.5%?
The listing price and the tracked series are separate readings. The series covers only the last half-day and is flat, with its high and low both at 18.5%. Market-implied probabilities reflect current trading and are not forecasts.
What happens if the match is postponed?
It must be rescheduled to a start on or before November 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If the most recently announced start falls within that deadline, the market resolves on the match result. Otherwise it resolves 50-50, even if the match is played later.
Do the Total Kills markets resolve the same way?
Total Kills markets are separate from Match Winner and have their own resolution rules. Check each market's resolution text before relying on its price, since the rules for each line may differ.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.